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Title: Declines in HIV incidence among men and women in a South African population-based cohort
Authors: Vandormael A, Akullian A, Siedner M, de Oliveira T, Bärnighausen T, Tanser F.
Journal: Nature Communications,10(1):5482. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-13473-y: (2019)

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Abstract

Over the past decade, there has been a massive scale-up of primary and secondary prevention services to reduce the population-wide incidence of HIV. However, the impact of these services on HIV incidence has not been demonstrated using a prospectively followed, population-based cohort from South Africa-the country with the world's highest rate of new infections. To quantify HIV incidence trends in a hyperendemic population, we tested a cohort of 22,239 uninfected participants over 92,877 person-years of observation. We report a 43% decline in the overall incidence rate between 2012 and 2017, from 4.0 to 2.3 seroconversion events per 100 person-years. Men experienced an earlier and larger incidence decline than women (59% vs. 37% reduction), which is consistent with male circumcision scale-up and higher levels of female antiretroviral therapy coverage. Additional efforts are needed to get more men onto consistent, suppressive treatment so that new HIV infections can be reduced among women.

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Citation: Vandormael A, Akullian A, Siedner M, de Oliveira T, Bärnighausen T, Tanser F. Declines in HIV incidence among men and women in a South African population-based cohort Nature Communications,10(1):5482. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-13473-y: (2019).